What would have happened in the Yoruba country and West Africa if no British colonisation? In the words of the late Professor J F Ade Ajayi, erudite historian and former VC of the University of Lagos: "Ibadan in the nineteenth century stood astride the Yoruba country like a Colossus." It is important to highlight what led to that. THE BACKGROUND: The Oyo empire lost Dahomey, Egba and Ilorin; as Ilorin was the closest to Oyo Ile the capital, Alaafin Oluewu decided he must retake Ilorin despite that the Ilorin were not trying to expand.
He enlisted the support of King Eleduwe of Borgu - both were captured by the Ilorin during the war expedition, executed and buried in Ilorin. Oyo Ile was left leaderless and the people panicked and left the city in droves - they are the ancestors of the Modakeke; they also went to places like Ibadan, Oyo Atiba, Ogbomosho, Iwo, Ilorin. It was at that point that Ibadan began to grow.
Ogbomosho existed before Ibadan, and it was the Ijesa that stopped the first advance of Ilorin to the South during the Poole war before the Oyo got their acts together. Ibadan swelled in population and assumed leadership of the Oyo nation while not tampering with the ceremonial position of the Alaafin at the new Oyo Atiba. After several wars, including the Fejeboju war at Okemesi where a river turned red because of blood flow, the Ibadan put the Ijesa under them as a province.
The second attempt by Ilorin to advance South was in alliance with the Ijesa - Ibadan decisively defeated the Ilorin at Osogbo, the infantry attacking the cavalry camp at night using a predetermined password. There were other battles and expeditions involving large-scale movement of troops, e.g. the Jalumi war, where the Ilorin cavalry drowned in the Otin river after the Offa army cut the bridge - hence the name of the war, Jalumi.
It was that war that put Ilorin under Ibadan; from that time Ilorin paid taxes to Ibadan until the Kiriji war broke out, leading to the Ilorin aligning once again with the rebels until the British came to the warfront on invitation by the Yoruba elite to end the sixteen-year-long conflict. IF THE BRITISH HAD NOT COME AT ALL: the rebels led by Balogun Ogedengbe of Ijesa would have buckled - Ijesa, some Ekiti and some Akoko could not have held out indefinitely against Ibadan, Ogbomosho, Ede, Iwo.
Either by compromise or outright defeat, the Ibadan-led side would have won even if it took a century - the battleground was on or close to the territory of the rebels. On quelling the rebellion, Ilesa might have been disestablished traditionally; the attention of Ibadan would turn to Ilorin as the two strongest allies of the Fulani in Yoruba land were the Ilorin and the Ijesa - Ilorin too would have been disestablished by Ibadan; there would today be at most a small village on the site, or a forest like old Oyo.
Then the attention of Ibadan would have turned to Sokoto afterwards - on the side of Ibadan would be the Borgu cavalry and the other Yoruba nation-states and their resources, and on the side of Sokoto, the Hausa states they are able to rally, mainly Kano. The winner of the confrontation between Ibadan and Sokoto would have formed something not much different in size and resources from today's Nigeria.
