Nigeria is among the sub-Saharan African economies with significant potential to benefit from the wider adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), but the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that weak infrastructure, limited digital access and skills shortages could constrain the country’s ability to translate the technology into broad-based economic gains. The IMF, in its July 2026 study, Unlocking the Potential: AI in Sub-Saharan Africa, said the impact of AI across the region would depend largely on countries’ ability to adopt, adapt and scale the technology beyond digitally advanced companies and urban centres.
The Fund identified Nigeria, alongside Botswana, Mauritius, Namibia, Seychelles and South Africa, as countries whose employment structures more closely resemble those of emerging-market economies, with relatively greater exposure to AI than many other sub-Saharan African economies. The finding is significant for Nigeria because sectors with higher AI exposure, including information and communications technology, finance and professional services, already form important parts of the country’s modern economy.
However, the IMF stressed that the present level of AI adoption across sub-Saharan Africa remains low compared with other regions. According to the IMF, about four-fifths of jobs in sub-Saharan Africa currently have limited exposure to AI. Of the roughly 22 per cent of jobs that are exposed, about 13 per cent of total employment could face significant replacement risks, while nearly 10 per cent could benefit from AI through productivity gains.
The Fund, however, said these figures should not be interpreted as a forecast of mass job losses, noting that AI would affect sectors and occupations differently depending on the tasks involved. Rather than focusing principally on job replacement, the IMF said Africa’s bigger opportunity lies in using AI to raise productivity in agriculture, informal businesses and other sectors where technology adoption remains limited.
It estimated that expanding AI beyond today’s digitally connected firms into agriculture and other sectors could substantially increase productivity across the region. Under a broader adoption scenario, AI could contribute about four per cent to sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP over the coming decade, equivalent to nearly half a percentage point of additional annual real GDP growth. The IMF said the potential gains are particularly relevant to Africa because the region is expected to account for roughly half of new entrants into the global labour force by 2030.
For Nigeria, the opportunity extends beyond technology companies to financial services, agriculture, education, healthcare, manufacturing and government services, where AI-enabled systems could automate routine processes, improve decision-making and expand access to services. The Fund cited a Nigerian teacher using a chatbot to support students in mathematics as one example of how AI is already beginning to find practical applications on the continent.
However, the IMF cautioned that AI adoption cannot be separated from the underlying digital infrastructure. Reliable electricity, affordable broadband, data infrastructure, computing capacity and digitally skilled workers are required before AI can deliver its full economic value. The Fund also noted that Africa has limited AI computing infrastructure, with the continent hosting about 160 data centres, representing roughly 5.5 per cent of global installations.
Nearly half of sub-Saharan Africa’s data centres are concentrated in Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya. This makes Nigeria’s recent push to attract data centres, cloud infrastructure and AI investment particularly relevant to its digital-economy ambitions. Nigeria’s National Artificial Intelligence Strategy has also entered an implementation phase, with government officials indicating that more than 700,000 Nigerians have been reached through AI-related training initiatives.
At the same time, over $1.85 billion in AI infrastructure commitments has been recorded. The National Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (NCAIR) impact report also listed initiatives covering AI skills, deep-tech training, responsible AI governance, data centres and AI cloud infrastructure as part of the country’s emerging AI ecosystem. The Federal Ministry of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy has separately reported that Nigeria ranked first in Africa and 38th globally in the 2026 Global Index on Responsible AI, indicating progress in the country’s responsible-AI governance and literacy efforts.
Despite these developments, the IMF said governments must address the structural bottlenecks that could prevent AI benefits from reaching a wider section of the population. It warned that AI could widen inequality if its benefits become concentrated among large firms, highly skilled workers and urban centres, while workers and businesses with limited access to connectivity, finance and training are left behind.
For Nigeria, the challenge therefore extends beyond producing more AI developers. It includes improving electricity supply, expanding broadband and fibre infrastructure, strengthening digital literacy, increasing access to computing resources and ensuring that small businesses can afford AI-enabled tools. The IMF also stressed the importance of regulatory safeguards covering data protection, competition, consumer protection, cybersecurity and the public-sector use of AI.
This is particularly relevant to Nigeria’s financial sector, where AI-enabled services are increasingly being integrated into banking, fintech, credit assessment, fraud detection and customer service. In its separate 2026 Article IV consultation on Nigeria, the IMF identified cyberattacks, technical failures and misuse of AI technologies as risks capable of causing financial and economic instability.
It recommended stronger cyber-resilience and tighter oversight of AI-enabled financial services. Meanwhile, the IMF’s broader assessment also comes as Nigeria seeks to diversify economic growth away from its traditional dependence on oil. The Fund estimated Nigeria’s economy grew by four per cent in 2025 and projected growth of 4.1 per cent for 2026, with information and communications among the sectors supporting recent expansion.
Analysts say the AI opportunity could therefore become part of Nigeria’s wider productivity and diversification strategy if investment in digital infrastructure is matched by human-capital development and policies that allow businesses to adopt the technology at scale. The IMF’s assessment makes clear that the economic value of AI will not come simply from importing advanced models or building isolated technology hubs.
The larger gains will depend on how effectively Nigeria embeds AI into productive sectors of the economy and makes the technology accessible to businesses, workers and public institutions. Similarly, for Nigeria, the emerging race is consequently not only about developing AI technology but about creating the power, connectivity, skills, data governance and business environment required to turn AI adoption into higher productivity and wider economic participation.
