And it's all down to the subsidy going....
I believe tinubu has lost the South east, largely because the South East's main industry, so to speak, is imports, and the sale of imported goods. Because the naira has been devalued, the amount of naira needed to buy forex has risen, which has made importing more expensive. Add the fuel subsidy removal making transport from the ports to the end point worse, and you have a lot of people suffering.
Plus east relies heavily on food sent from the North...the grains, as well as imports, all now more costly thanks to dollars not being subsidised. As a result SE people are suffering massively .People would vote for Atiku and Obi.
Tinubu has also lost the North. Fuel should be reaching the N1500 mark by now, meaning that transport and so forth have gone up massively for many poor Northerners. Northern traders are having to deal with increased transport and other costs, ditto middle men. And the North is Nigeria's poorest region, so...there we are. Then the North has a raging insecurity problem, (it also affects the middle belt too, and the South). All that adds up to people voting for Atiku and Obi at the end of the day.
South West too is not safe, insecurity is a big problem, throw in high transport costs thanks to subsidy removal, and high costs of imports, and there you have it.
South South is going to be split between NDC and ADC.
The main thing is subsidy. In a way, with benefit of hindsight, tinubu and buhari should have supported susbdiy removal in 2012, by now the hard times from the removal would have dissipated, and assuming no changes in the leadership, there would have been enough in the reserves to pay for some limited subsides without borrowing. Instead, the best government can offer is a limited subsidy which would be paid for by borrowing.
In a way, tinubu is paying for supporting subsidy retention in 2012. He should have listened to the economists, not to the populists. But power hunger got him there (gej too should have been strong enough to remove subsidy, really tho).Had he listened to the economists, subsidy removal in 2012, would have meant that there would be no draining of the forex reserves to pay for subsidy on naira and on fuel.
Also, in 2015, APC had 15 million votes, in 2019, 19 million, 2023, 8 million. APC has been losing votes, not gaining.The signs are clear from that.
Subsidy is the issue in this election, and a good deed is going to get rewarded with removal. Funny enough, I doubt tht whoever takes over would bring back subsidy, but I do know that in 94 days time, Nigerians would vote out APC.
(I am ready to eat my words...but this is how it is going to be IMHO.)
